In my previous post I predicted the downturn would be a rather short-lived 4th wave, and the bull market would soon resume.
I was wrong.
The local bottom call was wrong. The time frame was wrong. The duration was also wrong. Despite all this, the Elliott Wave count was right.
The correction was a primary Wave 4 and not an ABC bear cycle. If Wave 2 was the sharp correction from ~8000 USD to 5700 USD in early November 2017, then conventional EW analysis says Wave 4 should be a drawn out, sie-ways affair (which it has been). EW analysis also says Wave 4 should not overlap with Wave 1 (which has not happened).
We are now in the beginning stages of the Wave 5 impulse. The in-vogue prediction at this time is the current move from ~6500 on to 9800 is a minor correction on the road down to an eventual 6K (or even 4K in the most bearish predictions). Let me remind you, at the beginning of bull cycles there’s always a healthy dose of skepticism and the overwhelming sentiment is any rally is a bull trap.
The Situation As of Thursday, April 26th 2018
Bitcoin is currently range-bound between the 200-day moving average at ~9800 and the upward sloping 10-day moving average around 8800.
Fearless Prediction: This weekend will a re-test of the 200-day moving average which will ultimately fail (could go as high as 10,200), leading to a re-test of the 8300 level within the month. Bitcoin will bounce off ~8300 with strength, which will officially kick off the new bull market.